TREND
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Details
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Methodology
• Input: PCEPILFE (core PCE index level)
• 3m SAAR: ((P(t)/P(t−3))^4 − 1) × 100
• Trend: OLS slope of last 6 obs (pp/month)
• Clamp: [-2, 8] to reduce spike distortion
• Thresholds: ±0.03 pp/month
• Input: PCEPILFE (core PCE index level)
• 3m SAAR: ((P(t)/P(t−3))^4 − 1) × 100
• Trend: OLS slope of last 6 obs (pp/month)
• Clamp: [-2, 8] to reduce spike distortion
• Thresholds: ±0.03 pp/month
PRESSURE
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Details
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Methodology
• Input: PCEPILFE (core PCE price index level)
• YoY: computed only if exact t−12 exists (robust).
• Bands: OK ≤ 2.5%, WARN (2.5–3.5], CRIT ≥ 3.5.
• Δ YoY (pp): current YoY minus prior-month YoY (t−1 vs t−13) when available.
• Distance to target: YoY − 2.0%.
• Input: PCEPILFE (core PCE price index level)
• YoY: computed only if exact t−12 exists (robust).
• Bands: OK ≤ 2.5%, WARN (2.5–3.5], CRIT ≥ 3.5.
• Δ YoY (pp): current YoY minus prior-month YoY (t−1 vs t−13) when available.
• Distance to target: YoY − 2.0%.
ATLAS Inflation Score
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/ 100
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Score details
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Month: —
Sraw: —
Component contributions
| Component | Weight | Subscore | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
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Subscore is normalized to −1..+1. Impact is the points added to the final score.
Inflation — Core Watch
EXPECTATIONS
EXPECTATIONS SPREAD
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Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED®), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis does not sponsor, endorse, or affiliate with EconoAtlas. FRED® services and content are provided “as is / as available” without warranties and may be subject to third-party copyright restrictions.
DECOMPOSITION
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