Industrial Momentum
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Details
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Methodology
• Input: INDPRO (Industrial Production Index level)
• 3m SAAR: ((P(t)/P(t−3))^4 − 1) × 100
• Trend: OLS slope of last 6 obs (pp/month)
• Clamp: [-6, 10] to reduce spike distortion
• Thresholds: ±0.05 pp/month
• Input: INDPRO (Industrial Production Index level)
• 3m SAAR: ((P(t)/P(t−3))^4 − 1) × 100
• Trend: OLS slope of last 6 obs (pp/month)
• Clamp: [-6, 10] to reduce spike distortion
• Thresholds: ±0.05 pp/month
CYCLE Regime
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Cycle: Real economy + Signals
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Methodology
Core (Real economy)
• Momentum proxy: INDPRO (Industrial Production, level)
• Pressure proxy: TCU (Capacity Utilization, %)
Momentum (INDPRO) — 3m SAAR
• 3m SAAR = ((P(t)/P(t−3))^4 − 1) × 100
• Momentum class: STRONG > 2.0; SOFT [−1.0, 2.0]; WEAK < −1.0
• Δ momentum: current 3m SAAR minus previous month’s 3m SAAR (pp)
Pressure (TCU)
• Level class: HIGH ≥ 80.0; ELEVATED [78.0, 80.0); LOW < 78.0
• Δ pressure: current TCU minus prior month TCU (pp)
Cycle mapping
• STRONG + LOW → EARLY CYCLE
• STRONG + HIGH → LATE CYCLE
• WEAK + HIGH → PEAK RISK
• WEAK + LOW → SLOWDOWN
• Otherwise → TRANSITION
Signals (Financial regime)
• Yield curve: T10Y2Y (10y minus 2y). Inversion is an alert (not a timer).
• Financial conditions: STLFSI4. Positive = above-average stress.
Note
• This is a qualitative cycle heuristic (not a recession model). Best read alongside labor and credit.
Core (Real economy)
• Momentum proxy: INDPRO (Industrial Production, level)
• Pressure proxy: TCU (Capacity Utilization, %)
Momentum (INDPRO) — 3m SAAR
• 3m SAAR = ((P(t)/P(t−3))^4 − 1) × 100
• Momentum class: STRONG > 2.0; SOFT [−1.0, 2.0]; WEAK < −1.0
• Δ momentum: current 3m SAAR minus previous month’s 3m SAAR (pp)
Pressure (TCU)
• Level class: HIGH ≥ 80.0; ELEVATED [78.0, 80.0); LOW < 78.0
• Δ pressure: current TCU minus prior month TCU (pp)
Cycle mapping
• STRONG + LOW → EARLY CYCLE
• STRONG + HIGH → LATE CYCLE
• WEAK + HIGH → PEAK RISK
• WEAK + LOW → SLOWDOWN
• Otherwise → TRANSITION
Signals (Financial regime)
• Yield curve: T10Y2Y (10y minus 2y). Inversion is an alert (not a timer).
• Financial conditions: STLFSI4. Positive = above-average stress.
Note
• This is a qualitative cycle heuristic (not a recession model). Best read alongside labor and credit.
ATLAS Activity Score
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/ 100
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Methodology & details
Methodology
Composite
Activity = 45% Growth + 20% Pressure + 20% Risk + 15% Expectations
Growth
GDP YoY percentile (15y)
INDPRO 3m SAAR
Trend slope (6m OLS)
INDPRO 3m SAAR
Trend slope (6m OLS)
Pressure
Capacity Utilization level + monthly delta
Risk
Yield curve level (mapped) + slope change percentile
Expectations
SEP projections mean mapped 0–4%
Tilt adjustment ±10
Tilt adjustment ±10
Rolling percentiles are regime-aware.
This is a composite heuristic — not a recession probability model.
Activity — Core Watch
EXPECTATIONS
| Yield Curve (10Y–2Y)
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Details
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Methodology
• Input: T10Y2Y (10Y − 2Y Treasury spread)
• Bands: OK ≥ 0.50, WARN (0–0.50), CRIT < 0
• Δ m/m: change vs prior month
• Distance to inversion: spread − 0
• Input: T10Y2Y (10Y − 2Y Treasury spread)
• Bands: OK ≥ 0.50, WARN (0–0.50), CRIT < 0
• Δ m/m: change vs prior month
• Distance to inversion: spread − 0
| Labor Market — Sahm Rule
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Details
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Methodology
• Input: SAHMREALTIME
• Bands: OK < 0.35, WARN (0.35–0.49), CRIT ≥ 0.50
• Δ m/m: change vs prior month
• Distance to trigger: 0.50 − value
• Input: SAHMREALTIME
• Bands: OK < 0.35, WARN (0.35–0.49), CRIT ≥ 0.50
• Δ m/m: change vs prior month
• Distance to trigger: 0.50 − value
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Details
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Methodology
• Input: TCU (Capacity Utilization, %)
• Level: last available observation (monthly)
• Bands: OK < 78.0, WARN [78.0–80.0), CRIT ≥ 80.0
• Δ (pp): current level minus prior month (t vs t−1)
• Distance to neutral: Level − 78.0
• Input: TCU (Capacity Utilization, %)
• Level: last available observation (monthly)
• Bands: OK < 78.0, WARN [78.0–80.0), CRIT ≥ 80.0
• Δ (pp): current level minus prior month (t vs t−1)
• Distance to neutral: Level − 78.0
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Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED®), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis does not sponsor, endorse, or affiliate with EconoAtlas. FRED® services and content are provided “as is / as available” without warranties and may be subject to third-party copyright restrictions.