Cycle: Real economy + Signals
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Methodology
Core (Real economy)
• Momentum proxy: INDPRO (Industrial Production, level)
• Pressure proxy: TCU (Capacity Utilization, %)
Momentum (INDPRO) — 3m SAAR
• 3m SAAR = ((P(t)/P(t−3))^4 − 1) × 100
• Momentum class: STRONG > 2.0; SOFT [−1.0, 2.0]; WEAK < −1.0
• Δ momentum: current 3m SAAR minus previous month’s 3m SAAR (pp)
Pressure (TCU)
• Level class: HIGH ≥ 80.0; ELEVATED [78.0, 80.0); LOW < 78.0
• Δ pressure: current TCU minus prior month TCU (pp)
Cycle mapping
• STRONG + LOW → EARLY CYCLE
• STRONG + HIGH → LATE CYCLE
• WEAK + HIGH → PEAK RISK
• WEAK + LOW → SLOWDOWN
• Otherwise → TRANSITION
Signals (Financial regime)
• Yield curve: T10Y2Y (10y minus 2y). Inversion is an alert (not a timer).
• Financial conditions: STLFSI4. Positive = above-average stress.
Note
• This is a qualitative cycle heuristic (not a recession model). Best read alongside labor and credit.