EconoAtlas
US AR BR
Industrial Momentum
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Details ✕
Methodology

• Input: INDPRO (Industrial Production Index level)
• 3m SAAR: ((P(t)/P(t−3))^4 − 1) × 100
• Trend: OLS slope of last 6 obs (pp/month)
• Clamp: [-6, 10] to reduce spike distortion
• Thresholds: ±0.05 pp/month
CYCLE Regime
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Cycle: Real economy + Signals ✕
Methodology

Core (Real economy)
• Momentum proxy: INDPRO (Industrial Production, level)
• Pressure proxy: TCU (Capacity Utilization, %)

Momentum (INDPRO) — 3m SAAR
• 3m SAAR = ((P(t)/P(t−3))^4 − 1) × 100
• Momentum class: STRONG > 2.0; SOFT [−1.0, 2.0]; WEAK < −1.0
• Δ momentum: current 3m SAAR minus previous month’s 3m SAAR (pp)

Pressure (TCU)
• Level class: HIGH ≥ 80.0; ELEVATED [78.0, 80.0); LOW < 78.0
• Δ pressure: current TCU minus prior month TCU (pp)

Cycle mapping
• STRONG + LOW → EARLY CYCLE
• STRONG + HIGH → LATE CYCLE
• WEAK + HIGH → PEAK RISK
• WEAK + LOW → SLOWDOWN
• Otherwise → TRANSITION

Signals (Financial regime)
• Yield curve: T10Y2Y (10y minus 2y). Inversion is an alert (not a timer).
• Financial conditions: STLFSI4. Positive = above-average stress.

Note
• This is a qualitative cycle heuristic (not a recession model). Best read alongside labor and credit.
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Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED®), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis does not sponsor, endorse, or affiliate with EconoAtlas. FRED® services and content are provided “as is / as available” without warranties and may be subject to third-party copyright restrictions.

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